Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/17-18, likely voters):
Walt Minnick (D): 35
Bill Sali (R-inc): 46
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±5%)
Sali is under 50%, so he’s definitely in the danger zone, but this will be an uphill race for Walt Minnick. Most troubling is Minnick’s favorability rating: 41-40. Those are some inexplicably high negatives for a challenger in a race that hasn’t really heated up yet. Neither Sali nor the NRCC have gone up with negative ads against Minnick, while Minnick has been airing positive bio ads for quite some time. I’m at a loss to explain why nearly as many people view him unfavorably as they do favorably.
Up the ticket, McCain is beating Obama by a 59-32 margin, not an especially dramatic improvement for Team Blue over Kerry’s 69-30 loss here in 2004.
UPDATE: The Minnick campaign releases a statement about this poll to SSP (via email):
Our internal polling has been consistently and dramatically different from the numbers released today. We are confident going forward to Election Day.
SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.
Update: The Great Orange Satan also polled the state’s Senate race (9/16-17, likely voters, 7/28-30 in parens):
Larry LaRocco (D): 33 (32)
Jim Risch (R): 56 (42)
Rex Rammell (I): 3 (5)
Other: 3 (4)
Undecided: 5 (17)
(MoE: ±4%)
The undecideds have come off the fence — and they’ve landed on exactly the side you’d expect in this crimson red state. Tough breaks, but it’s Idaho.
I was really hoping Minnick’s numbers would be better. It’s also sad to see LaRocco fairing so poorly. He’s probably run harder than ANY of the Democratic Senate candidates this year and deserves better. Oh well, this IS Idaho we’re talking about.
was the 1996 Senate race? Could that be a factor in Minnick’s unfavorables?
Also, LaRocco’s numbers are quite disappointing, but, yes, this is Idaho. Maybe the high migration rate into Idaho will leave Risch vulnerable to a stronger challenge in 2014? Also, never underestimate the idgit vote. Maybe enough confused people mark off both “Risch” and “Pro-Life” to make this closer than we’re thinking? Wouldn’t count on it flipping the election, but you never know.
That REALLY hurts.
Let’s hope it gets better.
I never expected this to actually be close. In all actuality, we all probably included it on our lists of up and coming races and possible random takeovers on election night because SenateGuru pushed it so hard.
ID-01 though, we have a good shot I’d say still. 11% is pretty shitty but, two months left so let’s see what Minnick can do! He has been outraising Sali and that has to say something.